I know it's not everyone's cup of tea but I am a chart junkie.
I was watching today the trading and I keep being amazed by how the stock market just keeps making new highs.
Looking at the price-to-earnings of the S&P 500 in relation to its historical average.... makes one wonder about the level of confidence of the investors.
The average stock today is trading at 73% above its historical average valuation.
There are only two other times in history that stocks were more expensive than they are today.... just before the Great Depression hit and in the1999 run-up to the dot-com bubble burst.
Before the inevitable decline, will price-to-earnings revisit the pre-Great Depression level of 95% above average, or will it maybe say hello to the pre-dot-com crash level of 164% above average?
Just thinking out loud..... don't mind me.

Its great for those who have ridden it up from Dow 5,000. They have some staying power. Anyone familiar with the Kondratieff Wave Theory has been scratching their head waiting for a 60% retracement for about 20 years now. I don't think the technology bubble of 2000's was it. I sure don't see the fundamentals to support these prices. But this might just be the inflation we expected from several rounds of quantitative easing. I also have been told that we have experienced a large amount of companies repurchasing their stock in an effort to keep their prices higher. If true then these prices are artificial. Certainly the election boosted stocks for the anticipation of lower taxes and this weeks action seems to be supported by some actual discussion in that direction. The old mainstays like GE are fading to the Apples and Amazons and Facebooks. I am a contrarian in that the majority are usually wrong. In summary like you I'm nervous.

Steve, I couldn't agree more. This time it seems no matter what is happening around the world or the country the market shakes it off.
During the Obama years, the market was going up despite the shitty economic indicators because the cheap money banks acquired and pumped into the system.
So now we have actual economic data to back some modest growth but nothing even close to the measures of what the market is growing......
Central Banks are injecting over $100B of new money every month.
The reason stocks are climbing is due to banks directly selling bonds and buying equities with that new money.
This madness will continue until central banks are forced by rising inflation. Once this occurs, all hell will break loose.
Until then, "markets" will continue rising no matter what the fundamentals are.
I am like you. Don't wanna sound too negative but this ride is about to fall apart in mid-air.....

So the next big question is what do you do with the money you already have invested (401k) Where do you move it
so it does not disappear ?? Or at least is hurt less.

Food and ammo....both excellent bartering material.

Take the money invested in your 401k, IRA and Roth, move it to a money market account within the account. It will be safe there till the correction, then reinvest. The correction IS coming.

Anything in robotics would be a sure hedge in my opinion.
All of the sudden stocks like Google and Facebook (non production advertisement reliant) been put from buy/hold category to the hold/sell category.
Makes you go HMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!
Shit is about to bust the lid open!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

crap, and I finally recovered from 2008.... or at least I think I did...

I cashed out everything I have in the markets last week....EVERYTHING. If I am the fool, I at least wont be alone. I know several just locally doing the same.

i read an interesting article, just can't find it now, that speculates that inflation is not as inevitable as it previously was, and that the rules have changed due to all the changes in the means of production in the last 20 years. Globalization, Internet, Automation, artificial intelligence, changes in distribution channels, digital currencies etc have fundamentally changed the costs and access to goods and we are seeing a sea change where older economic theories simply don't apply. The federal reserve and traditional economists keep waiting for inflation to rear it's head, and it's not, and may not.
So just like everyone waited forever for things to collapse off the gold standard, and they have not, waiting for inflation to collapse everything may not materialize. Lots of talk about the shift from production being the driver in the past, to distribution becoming the new challenge with things such as a basic income distribution to everyone etc. I'm not putting this up here for political discussion just speculation that there may be a sea change going on where the rules of economic theory may be changing dramatically. Present political phenomena like Trump, Brexit etc may well be evidence of the changes beginning to happen, and resistance to it. Nevertheless the changes are probably inevitable and it's likely to be a bumpy ride with the inevitable winners and losers along the way.
Just found the article, or at least one of them along this theme.
https://www.wired.com/story/no-inflatio ... nsiteshare

I don't recommend cashing out as the tax and penalties can eat you up.

Trump is the barking dog for nationalism, resisting the worldwide one government that is coming. We are the major road block , and we can and will be minimized.

I can just see us getting tag teamed by Russia and China while we are occupied stomping out North Korea. Our power grid is our Achilles heel. This isn't fanatics saying this, top government officials have been barking about hardening our grid for years.

We are so DEPENDANT on the power grid to control distribution of all our goods.

I think it is arrogant to think the USA, mightiest military in the world, can't be taken out.

Putin is a mastermind and they aren't doing mass nuclear drills for nothing.

I don't see the one government thing - if anything things are becoming more fractured. I see more anarchy rather than one government - neither option is great for a peaceful life. You are right about control of the power grid through the internet grid - we are incredibly vulnerable - what happens in a hurricane is the best example of what a normal functioning grid means to our way of life. Everything from banks to food to transportation, power, fuel -everything lives off the grid today. There have been numerous occurrences already where the Chinese at least, have demonstrated their ability to control the grid. One publicized one that came to light a few years ago was when they diverted every single bit and byte of worldwide internet traffic through their servers for 30 seconds, and then claimed it was an accident. Think about the implications of that for a minute or two. The Chinese have whole universities devoted to computer warfare.
The only difference is, with a national failure or takeover of control of our grid, there ain't gonna be no FEMA or anyone else coming to bail anyone out.
So the only solution as none of us has a crystal ball or any real control of all these external aspects of our lives is Carpe Diem - I can't dwell on it anymore.

Jeff- ..I respect your opinion,, but things can change real fast.

I too am more worried about the cyber attacks and their consequences than actual war with either NK or freaking Arabs. We are over computerized and very laxed in our defense. Freaking highschoolers can break passwords as if they were nothing! Water supply, food supply and electric grids. Yeah....we are vulnerable as hell. Disabling internet and cell communication alone could kill millions!!!!!!
Yeah an actual attack of any of those would cause a sell off on Wall Street and the Chicago Mercantile without a doubt.